Mortgage Rate Update by Glenn Cira of Prospect Mortgage
I wanted to send out a note regarding the recent spike in rates as this has been somewhat of a “violent” move since the election in early November. I included a chart below of the US Government 10YR Note , which mortgage rates are tied to, so you can see how dramatic the recent move has been. You will see in early October the yield was sitting around 1.60%, which at that time put a 30YR fixed rate mortgage at roughly 3.5%. Through October rates crept up on the government note to about 1.8%(that put 30yr fixed rates at roughly 3.625%-3.75% at the time) which is where it sat until the election. You will see in early November right after Trump was elected, rates spiked up and now the 10yr note yield sits at about 2.40%, which puts a 30yr fixed rate mortgage right now at 4.125%.
The reason rates have spike off the election results is that Trumps economic policy is seen as pro-growth/inflationary. He wants to ramp up spending, while cutting taxes, which has concerns about an explosion of the federal deficit. Also his rhetoric on protectionist measures regarding global trade(keeping jobs here via import tariffs) would also be inflationary.